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سه شنبه 1 آبان ماه 1397 | ثبت نام | ورود | کاربر مهمان 
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جمعه 22 دی ماه 1396 | کد مطلب : 11682
Oil false ducts!
By : Dr. Seyyed Abdul Jalil Razavi

The year 2018, for a few days since that day, has been good for oil, with the fall in storage, the oil price trend has risen and black gold has entered the canal at $ 68 per barrel.

But shales are still stopping prices automatically and automatically controlling oil prices. The power of shale is so decisive that almost all oil holders admit that they would like the $ 60 oil to get higher prices! This indicates that the entry of oil into channels over $ 60 is false and sometimes temporary. The price of oil has risen by almost 20% over the past 45 days, but rising and decreasing factors are tight in competition to ultimately determine oil prices. The

The factors that increase the prospects for oil boom include geopolitical risks, the implementation of a reduction in production agreement, the reduction of global oil reserves and strong demand growth. Geopolitical risks and geopolitical developments in oil producing countries are among the factors that could disrupt oil supply and increase prices. One of the most important of these risks is the withdrawal of the Tramp government, the intensification of US sanctions against Iran, the rise of tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and internal conflicts in countries like Libya, while the implementation of a reduction in production agreement is also one It has been a factor in rising oil prices in recent days. OPEC and other non-member producers agreed on November 30 to extend the plan to reduce production by the end of 2018. Powerful implementation of the agreement to reduce production could have a positive impact on oil prices as of 2017. Of course, it should not be forgotten that some members of the agreement, especially Russia, have concerns over the excessive price rise of oil, because a significant increase in prices could encourage shale oil companies to re-enter the oil market. Meanwhile, the decline in world oil reserves has also spurred prices. The implementation of a reduction in production agreement has led to a reduction in world oil reserves in 2017 and a market closer to the balance of power. Recently, OPEC secretary-general Mohamed Barquindo announced that the global oil reserves surplus has fallen to 130 million barrels above the 5-year average. This figure rose to 380 million barrels before the agreement to reduce production. It is expected that the process of decreasing reserves will continue in 2018. Accordingly, strong demand growth also has a positive impact on prices. The strong growth of global demand, especially from China, has been one of the factors contributing to the growth of oil prices in 2017. Given the acceleration of economic growth in the world's major economies, predictions suggest that the growth of demand for oil in 2018 will continue. The International Energy Agency (IAEA) predicts that demand growth for OPEC oil will reach 32.4 million barrels per day in 2018.

But decreasing factors have also had an impact. As noted above, oil shale is a power that can no longer be ignored. The significant oil price growth in 2017 will provide a ground for returning US oil shale to the oil market next year. The US oil production has now reached 9.75 million barrels per day, and is expected to cross the 10 million barrels in 2018. In the event of an increase in US oil production, the positive effect of the agreement to reduce production on the market will be neutralized, which could reduce the incentive for OPEC and its allies to implement a robust deal to reduce production. Of course, statistics from the Baker Hughes Institute show that despite the significant oil price increase since June 2017, the number of oil drilling rigs in the US over the past 6 months has not only increased, but also decreased slightly. Meanwhile, the growth of the US dollar has lined up as a dampening factor against oil prices. The US dollar recorded the weakest annual performance since the year 2017, due to the failure of Tramp to fulfill its electoral promise. Given the value of crude oil on world markets in dollars, the weakening of the US currency in 2017 contributed to rising oil prices. If in the year 2018 US protectionist measures would create real barriers to US trade relations with other countries, including China, this could increase the dollar and have a negative impact on oil prices. Together with the factors mentioned, analysts expect Brent's average price to rise from about $ 54 in 2017 to around $ 60 in 2018.

However, now the price of oil is $ 2 to the $ 70 channel, but the oil prices are so strong that they immediately neutralize the increase in oil. Perhaps black gold holders would have to think of shale and its negative effects on the oil market to re-emerge the dream of $ 100 oil.




We have energy resources, no energy management!

BY : Ahmad Madadi

Iran is in total the largest holder of oil and gas reserves in the world. This is an important issue that has been reviewed annually by authorized agencies and international centers. The proven oil reserves in Iran are about 158 billion barrels and Iran's gas reserves are 34 trillion cubic meters. Iran holds more than 9 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and remains the fourth largest oil producer in the world, but holds 18.2 percent of the world's gas reserves in our gas sector, and the largest holder The world's gas reserves are considered.

As we have seen, our country is in a very ideal and exceptional situation in terms of oil and gas reserves, but in terms of energy management and the intensity of using these end-of-life energy, we are not in a stable and satisfactory condition, and the numbers and Energy consumption figures in Iran have been consistently recorded in the world! A negative and unfortunate record. The

This proves that the mere possession of unparalleled reserves is not encouraging, as Venezuela's unlucky country, with its untapped reserves of 300 billion and 900 million barrels, accounts for 17.7 percent of the world's oil reserves. It is ranked first in the world even higher than Saudi Arabia and Canada, but the country suffers from more than 700 percent inflation, and each one may collapse in the face of the country.

Accordingly, the missing link called "Energy and Productivity Management" in all aspects of human and industrial production becomes more and more evident. Unfortunately, in Iran, we are in a challenge and the suffering of what is the proper management of energy efficiency and efficiency, and we have not been able to properly resolve this important issue. Looking at the intensity of energy consumption in Iran and its comparison with developed or developing countries, we find that there is a very unlikely gap. The intensity of our energy is about nine times as large as Japan (which has the lowest energy intensity in the world) and about four times the intensity of the world's average energy. The

Only in the construction sector, more than 40 percent of our country's energy consumption is consumed unnecessarily, the main reason being the kind of construction and the neglect of the 19th issue and the lack of attention to the periodic technical examination of the engine rooms. We are in the building sector, that during construction, less energy-related regulations are taken into consideration. In the national regulations of the building, a topic called the nineteenth, which deals with the implementation of the rules, such as the use of double-glazed windows, insulating walls, etc., is a topic that is involved in construction, which is neglected. On the other hand, energy losses in the transmission and distribution network are high in their type, and in total, they reach about 15%. Twelve percent of this is due to the distribution network and about 3% to the transmission network, which if we could with a special measure, we could bring the total loss of distribution and transfer to a global average of between eight and eight percent, It was also a great help in managing energy consumption.

According to the author, energy efficiency optimization methods are typically divided into two categories, precious and non-priced, to deal with energy intensity. Accordingly, reforming the structures and laws, promoting technology and modifying consumer behavior as three major non-price strategies and tax policies (subsidies) and price liberalization are recognized as the most important price tools. Meanwhile, many experts point out that the lack of implementation of both costly and non-priced methods is due to the lack of optimization policies in Iran and its low productivity.

The final word is that reforming the pattern of consumption and energy management in Iran requires serious determination and determination. Considering the growth of energy consumption in the country, attention to optimization of energy consumption in order to protect the environment, supply security and resource conservation Unmatched and national wealth has become one of the top priorities of the country. Among other things, the price tool provides only sufficient incentive for productivity growth through replacement of factors of production. If, in these circumstances, there is no economic structure and facilities to improve the efficiency, then we can not expect the energy consumption pattern in our country to be corrected.

آخرین مطالب نفتی در کانال رسمی نشریه دانش نفت در تلگرام
اخبار ويژه
سیزدهمین همایش بین‌المللی صنعت پتروشیمی ایران که امروز و فردا با حضور ٣٨٥ شرکت داخلی و ٧٦ شرکت خارجی در مرکز همایش‌های بین‌المللی صدا و سیما برگزار می‌شود، ٦ نشست تخصصی و یک نمایشگاه جانبی هم خواهد داشت.
در گرمای کشنده دریای کارائیب کارگرانی در لباس غواصی با دستان خود مشغول پاک کردن نفت خام از بدنه کاسپین گالاکسی هستند؛ نفتکشی که آنقدر کثیف است که اجازه ورود به آبهای بین المللی را ندارد.

يادداشت روز
سرانجام سازوکار بورس نفت از سوی شرکت ملی نفت ایران اعلام شد که بر اساس آن فروش به صورت ۲۰ درصد ریالی و ۸۰ درصد ارزی خواهد بود که تسویه بخش ریالی (بر اساس نرخ تسعیر سنا) بصورت نقدی قبل از تحویل محموله و تسویه بخش ارزی به صورت اعتباری، با ارائه ضمانت‌نامه بانکی تعهد پرداخت ریالی معتبر از بانک‌های مورد قبول شرکت ملی نفت ایران، پس از تحویل محموله صورت می‌گیرد.
استفاده از قرارداد پالایش که به Processing agreement معروف است، یکی از روش‌‌هایی است که کشور می‌‌تواند به وسیله آن و از طریق فروش فرآورده‌های نفتی در زمان بسیار کوتاه، دستیابی به درآمدهای ارزی خود را تضمین کند.
با نزدیک شدن موعد تحریم‌های نفتی ایران، راهکارهای مختلف مقابله با تحریم طی مذاکره بین ایران و اروپا درحال بررسی است؛ مذاکراتی که هرچند تاکنون جزئیات آن اعلام نشده اما به اعتقاد کارشناسان به‌نظر نتیجه‌بخش است و آینده نفت ایران آن‌طور که آمریکا آرزو می‌کرد، سیاه نخواهد شد.

عبدالرسول دشتی، کارشناس پتروشیمی و رییس اسبق ستاد کارت سوخت/ استفاده از کارت سوخت مزایای زیادی دارد و در دوره‌ای که اجرا می شد، توسط مردم مدیریت مصرف سوخت در حال انجام بود.
هندی‌ها رسما اعلام کردند در دوران تحریم نمی توانند واردات نفت از ایران را صفر کنند و وادرات از ایران را تنها کمی کاهش خواهند داد.
محسن آقایی/ تولید مستمر گاز از فازهای پارس جنوبی و میادین گازی شرکت نفت مناطق مرکزی، این فرصت طلایی را پیش روی تدبیرپردازان صنعت نفت کشورمان قرار داده که با جایگزین کردن گاز به جای فرآورده در صنایع مختلف و نیروگاه‌ها، نسبت به صادرات فرآورده های نفتی به بازارهای منطقه‌ای و جهانی اقدام کنند.
عسگر سرمست، کارشناس ارشد حوزه انرژی و محیط زیست/ موافقت‌نامه پاریس مطابق با برنامه‌های ملی کره‌جنوبی است و این کشور حتی بدون این معاهده نیز، به سمت کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای خواهد رفت.
علیرضا سلطانی، کارشناس اقتصاد انرژی/ پس از خروج آمریکا از برجام و اعمال دوباره تحریم‌ها علیه ایران به‌ویژه تحریم‌های نفتی، شناسایی و راه‌های مقابله با اقدام‌های تحمیلی آمریکا و کاهش مخاطرات ناشی از این اقدام‌ها در عرصه اقتصادی به دغدغه اصلی سیاست‌گذاری تبدیل شده است.
مزیت‌هایی از جمله بازار گسترده فروش، حجم کم محموله‌ها و تبادلات مالی خرد فرآورده‌های نفتی نسبت به نفت خام موجب می‌شود که تحریم فروش فراورده به راحتی تحریم نفت خام صورت نپذیرد.
ایران با وجود منابع غنی نفت بالاترین رتبه شدت مصرف انرژی را حتی نسبت به کشورهای نفت‌خیز دارد.
دو عضو اوپک، سردمداری جهانی ضدیت با ایران را در بازار نفت به‌عهده گرفته‌اند. این کاملا روشن است. این کار نه در عالم همسایگی و نه در عالم همکاری، صحیح نیست.
حسن خسروجردی، رییس سابق اتحادیه صادرکنندگان نفت، گاز و پتروشیمی/ درباره مانع اصلی فروش نفت در بورس بایستی گفت: وزارت نفت توقع دارد بر خلاف رویه‌های جهانی در ازای فروش نفت خام به بخش خصوصی، بهای محموله را در موعد تحویل و به صورتی نقدی دریافت کند.
هاتف ستاری، کارشناس ارشد حقوق نفت/ کارشناسان حقوق نفت معتقدندکه سرمایه گذاران خارجی با مدل قراردادهای بیع متقابل آشنایی بیشتری دارند و ایران با استفاده از مدل اصلاح شده آن می‌توانست سرعت بیشتری در جذب سرمایه خارجی داشته باشد.

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